The Summer Cash Flow Trap
Summer in Vermont is a beautiful thing. The towns are full, the restaurants are packed, the shops have lines out the door. If you run a small business here, summer can feel busy but exciting, all that planning, all that prep, and now the revenue is finally flowing.
But here's something we see with small business owners every year: a strong summer doesn't always lead to a strong fall.
In fact, some of the businesses that bring in the most revenue in July and August find themselves financially stressed by October. Not because anything went wrong, but because of something we call the summer cash flow trap.
What Is the Summer Cash Flow Trap?
Cash flow and profit are not the same thing.
Your Profit & Loss statement might show a great summer. Revenue up, busy weeks, strong sales. But your bank account tells a different story — because cash doesn't always move when you think it does.
Here's how the trap works:
Money comes in fast, and it goes out just as fast. Summer often brings higher expenses alongside higher revenue: more inventory, more staff, more supplies, overtime, vendor payments, equipment repairs that couldn't wait. The revenue looks great. The margins? Sometimes thinner than expected.
You forget the quiet months are coming. Vermont's seasonal rhythm is real. For many businesses, October through March is dramatically slower. If summer revenue gets spent in summer, there's nothing left to bridge the gap. By November, what felt like a flush season can start to feel like a distant memory.
Estimated taxes catch people off guard. A strong Q2 and Q3 means a larger estimated tax payment due in September. If you haven't been setting money aside as revenue comes in, that payment can hit harder than expected, right when summer income stops and fall expenses begin.
The Signs You Might Be in It
You had a great summer but feel anxious about what's in your account right now
You're not sure exactly how profitable your busy season actually was
You haven't looked at your books since things got busy in June
You know a slow season is coming but don't have a clear picture of your runway
Quarterly estimated taxes feel like a surprise every time
If any of these sound familiar, you're not alone and you're not in trouble yet. But it's worth paying attention.
What to Do About It
Review your numbers now, while summer is still fresh. Pull your Profit & Loss for June, July, and August. Look at what actually came in versus what went out. That number — your real profit, not just your revenue — is what you have to work with heading into fall.
Separate your tax cushion. A good rule of thumb: set aside 25–30% of your net profit as you earn it, in a separate account. That way, your September estimated tax payment doesn't feel like it's coming out of nowhere.
Look ahead at your expenses. What's coming due in the next 90 days? Rent, insurance renewals, equipment, inventory for fall? Map those out now so you're not making decisions blind.
Talk to your bookkeeper. If your books have fallen behind during the busy season, getting them caught up now, before fall kicks in, gives you a clear picture of where you actually stand. That clarity is what lets you plan instead of react.
The Bottom Line
A great summer is something to celebrate. But the businesses that come out of Vermont's busy season in the strongest position aren't necessarily the ones with the highest revenue; they're the ones who stayed connected to their numbers and made intentional choices about what to do with what they earned.
You worked hard this summer. Make sure it's still working for you in January.
If you're not sure where your books stand heading into fall, we'd love to help you get clear. Reach out today.
